BAD IDEA
If a prediction market gives me a 70% chance of success, can I ignore my 100% lack of a plan?
No, a 70% chance on a prediction market isn't a get-out-of-planning-free card.
Prediction markets add some statistical spice but don't replace actual planning. Ignoring your total absence of a plan just because some market gives you a 70% chance is like skipping your parachute because someone said the plane might land safely. If you want that success, sketch out a plan instead of daydreaming about odds.
